Sobering stats for Hochul

Reporting, analysis and commentary
by Jim Heaney, editor of Investigative Post

A reader forwarded a post from the Daily Kos that lays out all sorts of interesting voting patterns in the New York’s reconfigured Congressional districts that underscore just how amazing Kathy Hochul’s victory was last year in the old 26th District and how difficult a repeat performance will be in the new 27th.

Press accounts have reported the edge in Republican enrollment has inched up from 6 percent over the Democrats in the old 26th to 7 percent in the new 27th. Not all that much movement and hardly insurmountable, given that Republicans do not hold a plurality.

But then consider voting patterns.

In the last presidential election, John McCain out-polled Barack Obama 54 to 45 percent in the district.

The election before that, George W. Bush topped John Kerry 57 to 43 percent.

Looking at statewide races two years ago, Republican Dan Donovan out-polled Eric Schneiderman in the race for State Attorney General 62 to 38 percent. In the race for State Comptroller, Republican Harry Wilson defeated Thomas DiNapoli 69 to 31 percent.

Kind of suggests the district leans Republican, doesn’t it?

Keep in mind, Hochul prevailed last May in a district that had similar characteristics. But be mindful that the special election was a three-way contest that included Jack Davis, running as a Tea Party line, in addition to Republican Jane Corwin.

Hochul captured 47 percent of the vote, vs. 43 percent for Corwin, 9 percent for Davis and 1 percent for Ian Murphy of the Green Party.

A look at the numbers for other Congressional Districts in Western New York shows the new 27th goes more Republican than the 26th (Brian Higgins), 23rd (Tom Reed) or 25th (Louise Slaughter).

Higgins’ inherited district, in which enrolled Democrats outnumber Republicans by 13 percent, went 64 – 35 for Obama over McCain and 63 – 37 for Kerry over Bush. Schneiderman prevailed 55 – 45 in the attorney general’s race while Wilson edged DiNapoli 52 – 48.

Schneiderman and Wilson also prevailed in Slaughter’s inherited district, as did Obama and Kerry.

Obama and Kerry out-polled their Republican opponents by razor-thin margins in Reed’s Congressional district. Donovan and Wilson won handily in state races.

If anyone has numbers on party enrollment figures for each of the reconfigured Congressional districts, or state Senate or Assembly districts, please pass them along.