Nov 3
2025
Our risky casino economy
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An op-ed in The New York Times (gift link) makes a case that the U.S. economy emerging under Donald Trump is akin to a casino, replete with all the risks that go with it.
He has ushered in … a casino economy, built on speculation and risk. Across markets and policy, wagers on the future are being made with other people’s money at a cost that could prove catastrophic.
This economy is largely defined by froth. What was once a fluke has become the operating system of modern markets: like stock prices largely driven by sentiment rather than fundamentals (recall GameStop and AMC in 2021 and the dot-com boom), the overwhelming power of social media and the flurry of bets on something not quite real.
The author, Kyla Scanlon, goes on to say:
Public and private sectors are rolling dice that the foundations of the U.S. economy will hold under the pressure. Meanwhile, the institutions and programs that help cushion risk — like Medicaid and the social safety net, information systems, independent regulators and Federal Reserve independence, even the legal system — have come under attack.
As the public sector steps back from its role as a stabilizer, the private sector has rushed in as a gambler, betting that technology alone can hold the system together. Big Tech companies are wagering trillions on A.I. infrastructure that might revolutionize everything, chasing a jackpot that could reshape the world — or leave a mountain of empty data centers and broken promises.
The A.I. boom has grown into one of the largest speculative waves in market history. The sector value of A.I.-linked companies is 17 times larger than the market capitalization of the dot-com era at its peak and over four times as large as the subprime bubble, according to MarketWatch. Goldman Sachs says that A.I.-related firms have borrowed a record $141 billion to keep that dream alive. Microsoft, Apple and Nvidia alone now account for over 20 percent of the S&P 500’s total market cap, their valuations swelling on bigger and bigger A.I. promises, and creating a concentration so extreme that the entire index moves with them.
If the gambles of the tech bros don’t pan out, we’re in for a recession, if not depression.
The nightmare scenario is that too many bets go bad simultaneously. An A.I. bubble bursts just as trade tensions escalate into a serious global trade war. The dollar faces a real challenge from a coalition of nations tired of U.S. economic unpredictability. A major bank or tech company fails, exposing interconnected risks, as we are just seeing glimpses of now with the recent bankruptcies of Tricolor and First Brands, which is threatening the swelling private credit industry. As Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of JPMorgan, put it, “When you see one cockroach, there are probably many more.” Unemployed workers have nowhere to turn. Consumer spending craters. What starts as a market correction becomes a full-blown economic crisis.
Strap in, folks.
Charlie Specht, in his latest Buffalo Muckraker post, reports the Erie County DA has added Erie County narcotics chief D.J. Granville to his list of cops with credibility issues.
Erie County’s central library, located in the heart of downtown, is rethinking how to use the building, given its ample vacant space. Buffalo Rising provides a good overview of the options and opportunities for public input.
New York Focus reports that the state prison system remains in crisis and cites conditions at the Auburn Correctional Facility as an example.
Prisoners at Auburn are going stir-crazy. Classes, programs, and jobs at the maximum security facility in Cayuga County are mostly canceled. Aside from meal time, people in general population units get an hour out of their cells every other day, according to two incarcerated people — the only time they’re given to shower, purchase items from the commissary, and exercise or socialize in the recreation area.
Donate to support our nonprofit newsroomICE is considering paying bounty hunters to track down migrants. Abuse waiting to happen.
The latest polling from Pew Research finds Americans are fed up with both parties. Republicans are perceived as slightly more extreme than Democrats and Democrats are upset with what they consider their party’s tepid push-back on Trump.
In light of Geoff Kelly’s reporting on the lack of competitive races in Tuesday’s elections, I give you Bruce Cockburn.
Coming this Wednesday: Our event on ICE and immigration
